Wednesday, April 13, 2011

CURRENT RBI RATE


3may

 Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee said that the RBI's policy measures were well warranted given the erratically high inflation figures. The RBI had to hike rates to contain the surging inflation numbers that were hampering growth. "We have taken enough of measures to ensure the supply side is maintained and the gap between demand and supply has been reduced," he said.
FY12 GDP is expected to be at 7.4% to 8.5% with 90% probability
 MSS rate to be 100 bps higher than repo rate
 Interest rate cap on MFI loans at 26%. RBI will appoint a committee to review priority sector lending.
 The RBI expects inflation to remain elevated for the first half of the fiscal year and after will mellow down to 6% by March 2012.
 Repo rate has been increased by 50 bps from 6.75% to 7.35%. Reverse repo will be adjusted to  6.25%, which will from now on be 100 bps blow the repo rate. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) has been left unchanged.
 The reverse repo rate will no longer be an independent variable
 The Indian indices drop as the RBI governor makes his monetary policy announcements.







"The underlying inflationary pressures have accentuated, even as risks to growth are emerging. Rising global commodity prices, particularly oil, are a major contributor to both developments," the central bank said.

In the last monetary policy review, Subbarao raised policy rates by 25 basis points meeting market expectations and raised inflation forecast for the fiscal by 150 basis points to 7%, drawing criticism that prognosis and policy are not in sync.

"The policy tone is hawkish, prioritising inflation over growth," said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays Capital in Mumbai.

"We have penciled in plus-25 basis points hike every quarter, with risks that they could do more," said Radhika Rao, economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore.

RBI had raised policy rates seven times since March, 2010, with a hike of 175 basis points in short-term lending (repo) rate and 225 basis points in short-term borrowing (reverse) repo rate in its bid to arrest inflation.

Data earlier in the week showed annual inflation accelerated unexpectedly to 8.31 percent in February, from 8.23 percent the previous month, defying forecasts of a slowdown.

While food inflation has fallen from peaks of 20 percent in early 2010, it remains stubbornly high at 9.42 percent.

Industrial growth slowed to 3.7 per cent in January this year, compared to 16.8 per cent expansion in the year-ago period, dragged down by the poor performance of the manufacturing sector, particularly capital goods.

Recent figures from recruitment consultancy Aon Hewitt showed that Indian corporate salaries were set to grow by nearly 13 percent this year -- the fastest pace in the world.

Investments remain a concern with rising interest rates deterring companies. The GDP numbers for the third quarter showed a decline in investments to 29.8% of the GDP from 34.1% in the second quarter.

Raising concerns that domestic demand growth is likely to slow, brokerages such as Citi and Morgan Stanley recently scaled down their GDP growth forecast for India to 8.4% and 7.7%, respectively, for the next fiscal year. In comparison, the government in its Budget last month said the economy is expected to grow at 9%, plus or minus 0.25%, in 2011-12.

RBI has been the region's most active in raising rates as the country climbs out of the financial downturn with growth projected at nine percent for the next fiscal year starting April 1.

Across Asia, countries such as China, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam have been tightening monetary policy to counter rising prices.

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